The Commonwealth Army was essentially a conscript infantry force equipped, trained and led to fight along World War I lines.
In the 1930s, the Philippine Commonwealth attempted to build up an army for home defense. The Americans were leaving soon, it seemed, and the Philippines would have to rely on its own resources for its defense. This is the topic of Rico Jose’s book on the Philippine Army, and it’s an excellent read and probably still relevant today. After some years and a lot of money, the conclusion that Manuel Quezon, president of the Commonwealth, came up with was that the Philippines simply couldn’t afford to defend itself. It would not be able to raise an army capable of fighting off a modern invader. However, Quezon believed that the League of Nation and modern economics made large-scale war between nations unlikely anyway. He was firmly convinced that the Philippines could rely on international diplomacy and arbitration to solve any security issues. And besides, the Americans would always be there to help out somehow.
Surprise! The crew of the USS West Virginia probably have something to tell Quezon about this new era of peace and international arbitration of disputes.
And then World War II broke out and Japan “peacefully” kicked the manbits out of the Philippines. During the ensuing occupation, the Japanese were particularly brutal in the Philippines. It wasn’t like China, but it was certainly bad enough. However, it was for our own good right? They were going to set up the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere. It’s got the word Co-Prosperity in it… it can’t be that bad, right? Riiiiight.
So why do I bring this up? A caveat: I don’t actually think a major world war is in the offing. But the security situation the South China Sea is far from stable and claims of peace and international arbitration just really make me think back to Quezon and World War 2.
Ah yes, these guys.
I bring it up because of the Philippines’ cuddly, peace-loving neighbor to the north, China. China has long claimed the Spratleys… indeed, they’ve long claimed the whole of the South China Sea as their “lake.” Bringing back the “China” to the South China Sea, eh? Of course China has made claims to being committed to peaceful exploitation and cooperation as well. A few things about that.
First, this peaceful China has twice invaded its neighbors– Vietnam and India– to assert its claims. This is also the same peaceful China that threatens Taiwan with invasion and is militarily occupying Tibet.
Second, peaceful China seems oddly intent on acquiring weapons that will make it capable of power projection. It is in the process of acquiring an aircraft carrier. It already has and is supplementing its submarine fleet. It already has and is supplementing its long-range aviation assets.
Third, China’s claims towards respect for its neighbors’ rights seems a little suspect considering it tends to adopt a utilitarian approach to its own citizens’ rights. The Chinese government has a benevolently dictatorial approach to ruling– as long as you mind your own business, that’s great– but you do things against government policy, not so great. I can easily see this applying to its international diplomacy and that the only thing currently restraining China is American military power and its own current lack of ability at power projection. Both of those will likely change in the future.
"All under heaven." Pro-Communist party propaganda never looked so good!
The above image is from the movie Hero, where the emperor of Qin had pretty much conquered all of China except for a handful of holdouts– the movie’s protagonists. The movie’s basic conflict is resolved by the line “All under heaven.” All personal nationalisms, passions, conflicts and interests were to be subsumed by allegiance to the emperor of Qin– “All under heaven.” On the bright side, this absolute submission would lead to universal peace and prosperity for all. It’s for your own good!
I can see a future, expansionist and aggressive China basically acting and rallying its own people under this banner. It’ll show the example of its own, impressive, economic and social development to basically force other countries to fall into line. It likely won’t conquer others, but it will likely go very far into coercing other countries. Perhaps when China is ready, there will even be a short, sharp conflict with one or the other of the South East Asian nations. Not a full-on invasion mind you, but more like a Sinic Falklands War, or El Dorado Canyon. Perhaps we will even see a Chinese Desert Storm one day. Indeed– we are so used to seeing America just pretty much going around bombing places in the name of international order that we had better get used to China one day doing the same. So perhaps one day Chinese naval and aviation forces will launch pre-emptive strikes on, say, Vietnam under the guise of international order.
This will not be unlike Western efforts at colonialism in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Remember, those powers also did it “for our own good.”
The Chinese people will likely not object to any kind of military action on the part of their government. They’re justifiably proud of the progress their country has made, but they also seem to be eager to show their progress and pride. They want to assert themselves, it seems. Any future Chinese military action, especially a successful one involving new equipment and tactics, will likely be met with rapturous approval by the Chinese population.
Why, hello there.
Recently, a Chinese vessel has been spotted in parts of the Spratleys again. This ship is within spitting distance of Palawan. It’s still in international waters, but it’s certainly very close to the Philippines.
A few things about this. First, China’s growing and consumeristic population will demand more resources. The Spratleys supposedly has these. Tough luck for the Philippines. China wants these waters, China needs these waters, China will eventually get these waters. Occam’s Razor suggests it could be as simple as that.
Second, a lot of China’s actions– my guess is– are probably motivated as much by internal politics as they are by external ones. There is an assumption that these incursions are official policy, but what if they aren’t? There is always the possibility that this little scouting vessel was sent on the initiative of just the Chinese armed forces– perhaps even just a portion of the armed forces– who are using it to, say, embarrass the Chinese diplomatic corps or civil authorities. Perhaps the Chinese navy is embarking on these actions to stir up trouble in the South China Sea which would alarm the Chinese government and therefore create the pretext for the Chinese navy to claim more money and resources. Perhaps there is an expansionist wing in the Chinese government or armed forces that is doing this. I personally don’t know and internal Chinese government politicking is very opaque. All I know is that my experience and knowledge of history has shown the primacy of internal factors– most countries or governments are far more familiar and concerned with their own inner problems than with external ones, and this is not always obvious from the outside.
Third, if there is any international diplomatic dimension to these ships nosing about the Spratleys, they could just as likely be directed at America. Gates is concurrently visiting the Pacific to reaffirm American involvement– perhaps this little excursion in to the Spratleys was China’s way of goosing him and America. Perhaps this was also China’s way of showing how much America’s promises are worth. Of course this is speculation and Gates and this scout vessel might not be related at all. The Chinese stealth fighter flight last January, also timed to a visit by Gates, might have been a coincidence and not provocation– the civil and diplomatic wing of the Chinese government didn’t seem to be aware of it, after all. On the other hand, it might be more proof of a lack of unity and internal politicking at the top.
In the end, this could all be panicky rumor mongering. China is currently in no state to do much beyond send lone, unarmed ships into a sea it can’t really control. America is still there. Other Southeast Asian countries have surprisingly powerful navies. Hell, Singapore alone could pretty much destroy whatever China could send south (whether it would be willing is another matter entirely).
However, it would be foolish in the extreme for the Philippines to discount China as a future threat. It will be, end of story. It’s an expansionist, aggressive, economically growing power. It might not want to conquer the Philippines but it will probably do much to push the country around to make it bend to China’s will. I can even foresee China meddling in internal Philippine politics. Indeed– China will basically act like America did during much of the Cold War. America and Europe might not have much to fear but the Philippines is a small country that will be trapped between two big ones.
I suppose the easiest thing is to just go along with it. The Philippines did benefit somewhat from American intervention and maybe hitching the Philippine cart to the fast-galloping Chinese horse wouldn’t be so bad. American power is fading in the region and it might simply be the realistic option. For one, the Philippines is currently in absolutely no state to resist China either diplomatically, economically or– especially– militarily.
Ladies and gentlemen, the Philippine Air Force.
Noynoy Aquino and others in his government actually obliquely threatened China with a military build up. This was the stupidest form of diplomatic posturing in the world because it probably just annoyed or even angered the Chinese or– more likely– amused them vastly. Make no illusions, the Philippine armed forces (just like Quezon once said) is in absolutely no shape whatsoever to resist Chinese moves in the Spratleys. None. Limited as Chinese blue water capabilities are, the Philippines cannot– zero ability, absolutely cannot– even defend its own, terrestrial aerospace and can barely defend its own littoral waters. The Philippines recently reminded the world it was hopefully acquiring a second-hand Hamilton-class cutter from the US Coast Guard to strengthen its Navy. All well and good, but this under-armed, second-hand patrol ship is not in any way going to improve its ability to stop the Chinese.
And don’t think any kind of defensive posture can be achieved by the Philippine Amred Forces anytime soon either. Acquiring modern fighter aircraft or ships would use up a very large proportion of the Philippine annual budget– so just buying the things would be difficult. Maintaining them, arming them adequately and training in their use would likely break the Philippine bank. You could clean up all the corruption in the Philippine armed forces and it still couldn’t afford to buy and maintain modern aircraft or ships. Our Air Force is particularly hamstrung because they haven’t operated modern fighter aircraft in decades– so it has now lost the capabilities and skill to do so. Pilots are leaving the air force in droves and those that are there have little to train on. Working up the Philippine Air Force to be able to have the skills and facilities to one day operate advanced machines would be the work of years, possibly even decades.
The ground forces– the Army–has shockingly basic problems with training and equipment. It can probably make an outright invasion of the Philippines difficult for a while, but when I did research on Philippine defense policy back in the early 2000s, the basic strategy was to go guerrilla and then hope for the Americans to come. This will likely be a moot point, though, since I still don’t foresee China actually invading the Philippines itself. The Philippines probably should not count on America intervening over the Spratleys.
Now, this all sounds pessimistic. Perhaps the Philippines will be able to play diplomatic games of brinkmanship and border state politics, playing off China and America and benefiting from both. Perhaps it can play the role of Thailand under the House of Chakri.
Or maybe Filipinos should all just learn to speak Mandarin and find out if they need OFWs in Shanghai.
Oh wait, they do. And they're treating the Filipinos great!
So, what can I say to all this? What else is there left to say?
I, for one, welcome our new Chinese overlords...
Posted by callitaweasel 
