Pity the Philippines because China is at it again. And China will keep bugging the Philippines until it either gets what it wants– Scarborough Shoal– pr the Philippines convinces it– militarily or diplomatically– to give it up. The legality of the two claims–the Philippine and Chinese– are opaque. Historically or juridically, it could either way, so this is a dispute that will essentially be solved through machtpolitik.
China is growing in power and it is beginning to exert its pretenses towards regional hegemony. Either for domestic, economic or military reasons, China has decided that the Spratleys is one area where it will attempt to exert what it probably feels is its rightful influence. The Philippines has been down this road before: a rising imperial power has decided to railroad Philippine interests. First it was America in 1899, then it was Japan in 1941. Ironically, both those countries would be useful allies for the Philippines in a future confrontation.
I tend to agree with the Philippine policy of standing up to the Chinese. If it backs down now, China will continue to push it and god knows when that will end. However, the Philippines has to be realistic about all this because in the end it has practically zero capability of defending itself against China.
Pictured above are the only two classes of ship in the Philippine Navy that could offer something of a fight to the Chinese Navy. The Philippines currently has 3 Peacock class patrol ships and 1 Hamilton class cutter. These ships are not bad as far as they go, but in the end… First, they’re not very new. The more powerful class, the Hamilton, is ’60s vintage while the Peacock class was commissioned in the ’80s. The Peacocks are newer but they also have shorter range and fewer weapons. Second, neither ship type– as configured for Philippine service– are armed with much more than guns. No missiles, no torpedoes, no integral helicopter, not even any CWIS or Close-in-weapons-system for anti-ship missile defense. Neither has much in the way of ASW capacity either. Third, these ships have only recently entered Philippine service, so training, integration and doctrine are likely not yet up to par. Finally– there’s only 4 of these so-so ships and they have no air support, no at-sea replenishment and no AEW or Airborne Early Warning support to speak of. In a fight, these vessels will show up to the Spratleys essentially blind, will not have much endurance (even the Hamilton) and will have to close to gunnery range to achieve anything worthwhile. The Philippine Navy’s ships are long-range fishery and sovereignty protection assets, not true naval combat assets.
Clearly, there is a reason why China picked the Philippines instead of the many other claimants to the Spratleys Islands.
The good news is that the Chinese Navy is not yet configured for true blue water, power-projection operations. The bad news is that this means it is not up to the tier of, say, the US Navy, but clearly overmatches the Philippines with its submarines and Sovremenneys. Interestingly, it has not sent any of its large surface vessels to the Spratleys just yet, indicating that China probably wants to keep this confrontation low-key.
Fortunately, the Philippines has an ace in the hole. This ace in the hole includes 10 aircraft carriers (each equipped with advanced F-18E/F fighters), the largest fleet of ballistic missile submarines in the world, a large fleet of attack submarines, and a host of Arleigh Burkes, Ticonderogas and all that other sort of naval warships.
Yup. The US Navy. The Philippines is a major non-NATO ally and its Hamilton class cutter is essentially a “donation” by the US. Theoretically– theoretically– the Americans are bound by treaty to come to the aid of the Philippines in case of an attack.
Therein lies the rub– the Spratleys are a disputed zone, so it is debatable whether a conflict there would constitute an attack on Philippine sovereignty, and it is therefore open to question as to whether America will help. I was very surprised that America helped the Philippines as much as it did in recent months and by and large, American diplomacy in the China-Philippines debate has been quite smart. It has given the Philippines ships, it has stepped up military aid, it has made non-committal public statements of support of the Philippines or calls for arbitration and it has initiated highly visible exercises with the Philippine armed forces. It has not categorically stated it would help in the event of a shooting war. This is wise from an American perspective since China is a major trading partner and can make life difficult for America. However, it has been enough to deter the Chinese. And let’s be clear, America is probably 90% of the reason why China hasn’t just gone ahead and grabbed the Spratleys: the Philippines has neither the political, economic, diplomatic or military power to stop them otherwise.
China is relenting in part because in any kind of limited engagement where America does get involved, the US Navy will simply destroy whatever the Chinese send out to sea. The American Navy is huge. It is well-equipped. It is well-trained, and well-motivated. Even when China finally does launch its one aircraft carrier, the balance will not tip– that carrier will have a “short and exciting life” as the common saying goes. All this talk of American decline has to be taken with some perspective– it will take decades for America to decline enough for China to discount it in its calculations. At the very least, it will take several years of training and expensive equipping for the Chinese Navy to be able to effectively lock down a patch of sea from the US Navy.
So for various reasons, China will limit its involvement in this issue. I mean, China will not be conquering the Philippines any time soon. It has enough economic and social issues– why would it want to add another 90 million poor people and a struggling economy? Why bother with the burden of international opprobrium and occupation duty when carefully leveraged use of force would do? As I said before, if China does decide to shoot it out with the Philippines, it will engage in its own version of Operation Preying Mantis or Operation El Dorado Canyon: a limited conflict that will display Chinese military might and hardware, cheer its people with displays of their strength, but minimize risk, cost and involvement.
Therein lies the Philippines’ solution to all this. Firstly, the country still has time: America can serve as a useful shield until the Philippines can stand on its own. Secondly, the Philippines doesn’t need an armed force that can stand up to the entire Chinese military, just enough of a one to serve as a deterrent.
As to the first point: there’s no getting around it. The Philippines needs to arm up. It needs to get serious about defense. Since the Marcos era and the expulsion of the US bases in Subic and Clark, Philippine military readiness has dropped to laughable levels. The armed forces are incapable of defending the Philippines from serious external threats and has not pursued modernization with much vigor. The reason given has been Philippine poverty and the existence of internal threats. Sadly, that’s not going to cut it. The Philippines will have to buy weapons– America might not decline for some time, but it’d be foolish to rely on her forever. It will have to find the money and resources to buy anti-ship missiles, a fighter defense, and all of the other stuff that goes into credible deterrence. It will have to create the structures and political will to reform the army and refocus its mission. It will haveto figure out a way to either simultaneously deal with the internal guerrilla groups, or neutralize them so the armed forces can focus on external missions.
Currently, the armed forces and the government have been lackadaisical about this. Then the assorted congressmen and senators are outraged and surprised when the Philippines can do nothing in times of crisis– like right now. I remember when the Philippines was shopping around for multi-role fighters at the height of the Asian Boom in the ’90s– the senators were all manfully posturing and declaring the air force better buy the best and not settle for bargain-basement secondhand stuff. Then they were surprised and dismayed to find out that 4th generation fighters would cost in the region of $20-$30 million apiece. As flyaway cost– not taking into account maintenance, weaponry and operation. That sort of ignorance on the part of our already ineffectual political leaders won’t do.
Southeast Asia is going to be a tough and dangerous neighborhood. Our Southeast Asian “brothers” are arming up. Vietnam has a large and experienced military. Malaysia has F-18s and MiG-29s. Singapore has F-15SEs. We have Italian trainer jets we can barely maintain. That really won’t cut it anymore.
There is one other obvious solution. Why not go along with the Chinese? I mean, why not? They are a rising power and this hostility with them is not inevitable or preordained. There are many advantages to siding with China– so why not try to reach an accommodation? We’re already junior partners with America– America that often ignores us. China is right here, and is clearly not ignoring us. Why not be their junior partner? It wouldn’t be a demotion in status, after all and there are dumber things to do than throw in our strategic lot with this new superpower. Who knows, they might even be grateful to have somebody siding with them at this stage and they might be more useful to the Philippines than America. I mean, notice how China has been helpful to North Korea, sending military and economic aid to that country. The Philippines could benefit from such an arrangement and in the end, there really is no need to be hostile to China.
Of course, it is also possible to steer a middle course. Like a friend once said– play border state politics. Play China off with America. That would require deft diplomacy and we perhaps need a Philippine Chulalongkorn, but it’s not implausible.
In both cases, however, the Philippines still needs to arm up. It still needs to present enough of a deterrent to China that China will be open to negotiation and it has to show America that it is capable of fighting on its own, and therefore force America to offer carrots to the Philippines. It can be done– the Philippines would just need a sound strategic plan and long-range vision. I guess the future will be “interesting times” no matter what happens.
Posted by callitaweasel 
